Overnight, we continue to see equities rallying with the euro and others stronger against the US dollar, a theme we have seen since late last week.
There is a sense of cautious optimism around the European summit which has caused investors to move into higher-yielding, riskier currencies such as the Australian dollar. The euro also got a bid against the US dollar, retesting its highs from yesterday near 1.3960. That means that the EUR/USD pair continues to trade above its highs from last week.
Concerns still do remain about the outcome of tomorrow's EU summit - mainly the amounts that banks and politicians will agree to for Greek write-downs. As reported banks have agreed to a 40% cut while Germany and other hardliners want to see a 60% write-down.
From Bloomberg: There are limits to what could be considered as voluntary to the investor base and to broader market participants, Charles Dallara, managing director of the Institute of International Finance, an industry group that's participating in the talks on Greek debt, said in an e-mailed statement yesterday. Any approach that is not based on cooperative discussions and involves unilateral actions would be tantamount to default.
Financial companies, represented by the Washington-based IIF, proposed a loss of 40 percent on Greek debt, said a person briefed on the matter who declined to be identified because the talks are confidential. Luxembourg's Jean-Claude Juncker, who leads the group of euro-area finance ministers, said yesterday that talks on private-sector involvement in a second aid package for Greece are focusing on losses of 50 percent to 60 percent.
Resolution here is important and it's important that both sides agree in order to make any restructuring a voluntary one. If banks are coerced into larger write-downs it would be a credit event and then banks would have to pay out on credit default swaps which creates a lot of uncertainty and extra complications to any managed Greek default.
For now though the market is giving the euro the benefit of the doubt as leaders look set to close their difference in time. With S&P500 futures higher, we are therefore seeing risk-on dominating today session.
What to Look for in North American Session
in your session we await retail sales data from Canada but more importantly the bank of Canada interest-rate statement. Any indication that the bank is more flexible on its elation target that it looks set to lower interest rates if needed could we can the Canadian dollar. we
However the Canadian dollar does looks set to test of parity level because of the US dollars broad weakness, and positive risk sentiment which hopes the commodity bloc currencies.
In the US. Data on housing including the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City house price index as well as the national FHFA housing price index. We also get a look at the conference board consumer confidence index which is expected to climb to 46.1 in October reading from 45.4 showing a slight improvement in consumers moods, and a regional manufacturing index - the Richmond Fed index - is expected to turn positive. -6 reading in September.