(Chart courtesy of FX Solutions' FX AccuCharts. Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; downtrend lines in red; uptrend lines in green; Fibonacci retracement levels in grey; chart patterns in yellow; 50-period simple moving average in light blue.)

4/01/2008 GBP/USD There are currently some technical factors on the GBP/USD daily chart, as shown, that are hinting at a generally bearish outlook for this key currency pair. And this does not include the fact that price has already plummeted well more than 400 pips in as many days. The first bearish factor, as mentioned in a previous Chart of the Day on the weekly Cable chart, lies in the fact that price performed a classic pullback move back up to the long-term uptrend line (in green) just two weeks ago. After this pullback, a subsequent move down occurred. This was a very pronounced move, and a major downward continuation would be confirmed on a breakdown of support at the last swing low (around the 1.9350 region). Another bearish factor that is in the midst of forming as of this writing is what resembles an unorthodox head-and-shoulders pattern (the neckline of which is represented by the short yellow line). It is an unorthodox head-and-shoulders because it doesnt follow a prolonged uptrend, as would normally be the case with reversal patterns like this. The form of the head-and-shoulders, however, is rather clear, which lends somewhat to the technically bearish outlook initiated by the abovementioned pullback move. Another interesting technical note lies in the fact that the head-and-shoulders neckline coincides with a key 61.8% Fib retracement level (the low-to-high retracement span being measured from the last swing low on 2/20/2008 to the pullback high on 3/14/2008), which is now on the verge of being broken down.

James Chen

Chief Technical Analyst

FX Solutions

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