China Q2 GDP Stabilizes at '9.5%'

By @ibtimes on

I'm not necessarily saying these figures are accurate out of China, but just reporting them.  The country claims GDP growth beat expectations at 9.5%.  What the true number is, is anyone's guess. [Dec 7, 2010: Wikileaks - China's GDP Figures are Man Made ... ] [Aug 5, 2009: China's Provincial Growth Figures Far Overstated versus National Figures]  At least the inflation figure, reported over the weekend at 6.4% , is making some sort of sense nowadays after 2 years of being nonsensical in relation to a 10% GDP.  [Sep 13, 2010: What's China's Real Inflation Rate? (What's China's Real Anything?)]  [Nov 12, 2010: Even China Accuses China of Fibbing about Inflation]

  • China's Consumer Price Index  showed prices rose 6.4% over the last 12 months ending in June, China's National Bureau of Statistics reported Saturday.  That marks the fastest pace in inflation since July 2008 and an acceleration from May's 5.5% rate.
  • Food, which accounts for more than a third of an average Chinese person's monthly expenses, rose 14.4% year-over-year. Meat and poultry prices were the worst culprit in that category, surging a whopping 32.3%. Pork prices rose 57.1%.

Of course being the world's marginal buyer of everything on Earth, knowing if China is trying to accelerate or decelerate their economy is important to know.   Judging from their presentation of nearly double digit growth with increasing inflation, it looks like they are signaling to the world that the slowdown of the past 4-5 months they are trying to engineer is still in process.  Some economists however disagree, and think we're at the end of the tightening cycle.

Via Bloomberg

  • Gross domestic product rose 9.5% in the second quarter from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said in Beijing today, after a 9.7% gain in the previous three months. The median estimate was 9.3% in a Bloomberg News survey of 18 economists. 
  • Industrial output advanced 15.1% in June, the most since May 2010, even after the central bank boosted lending rates five times since mid-October and lifted bank reserve requirements to a record. 
  • Signs of a slowdown have spanned weakness in imports, a manufacturing index falling in June to the lowest level since February 2009, and carmaker General Motors Co. (GM) saying that sales may be at the low end of a forecast.

Video below discussing the figures from CNBC Asia

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