Commodities Rebound after Massive Selloff but Likely be Short-lived

By Roger Baettig | May 17 2012 9:56 AM

Gold rebounded for the first time in 5 days. The benchmark comex contract slipped to the lowest level in 2012 at 1526.7 before ending the day at 1536.6 yesterday. The yellow metal has declined more than -7% since the beginning of this May. In the past, gold displayed safe haven appeal during uncertain situation. For instance in 2009-10, the metal surged to record highs as investors lost confidence on fiat currencies. However, at the current round of financial instability, investors fled to the US dollar instead and the negative correlation between gold and the greenback has showed a rising trend.

Sponsorship Link

Recovery was also seen in crude oil. Market sentiment appeared to have been lifted as the Fed signaled that further easing is possible. At the FOMC minutes for the April meeting, policymakers indicated that new actions may be taken of 'downside risks to the forecast became great enough'. Aggravation of the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone since the April meeting may lead to further quantitative easing measures should the situation in the bloc spread outward and affect the economic conditions in the US.

Earlier today in Asia, Japan's GDP unexpectedly expanded +1% in 1Q12, following a flat reading in the last quarter. This is the best result in terms of economic growth in Japan since 3Q11. Domestic demand added +0.9%. On a year-ago basis, real GDP rose +2.6%. Meanwhile, growth in industrial production was revised higher to +1.3% m/m in March from a preliminary reading of +1.0%. This exceeded market expectations of a +1.1% gain.

The US will release a series of economic indicators in the NY session today. Initial jobless claims probably increased +8K to 375K in the week ended May 12. Philly Fed survey might have improved to 12 in May from 8.5 a month ago while leading indicators probably gained +0.1% in April, easing from +0.3% in March.