Talking Points

  •  Crude Oil, Copper Follow S&P 500 Futures Lower on OECD Forecasts
  •  Gold and Silver on the Defensive as Haven Flows Lift US Dollar Anew

Commodity prices are trading broadly lower in Europe, with investors seemingly taking their risk appetite cues from a downward reversal in S&P 500 stock index futures rather than well-supported regional shares. Contracts tracking the US equities benchmark reversed sharply lower to erase overnight gains after an updated set of OECD economic forecasts saw downward revisions to 2012 GDP growth expectations in the Eurozone (-0.1 percent vs. 0.2 percent seen in November) and China (8.2 percent vs. 8.5 percent previously). Bets on performance in 2013 were likewise slashed in both cases.

More of the same appears likely as Wall Street comes online. Sentiment-geared crude oil and copper prices under pressure as risk appetite unravels while gold and silver come under attack as the rout stokes safe-haven inflows into the US Dollar. Indeed, the greenback is now hovering near session highs against its top counterparts. On the economic data front, the spotlight turns to the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index as traders continue to work out where the US recovery stands in May after a relatively soft outing in April. The preliminary API set of weekly crude oil inventory figures is likewise on tap.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $92.57 // +1.09 // +1.19%

Prices put in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern above support at 90.49 and took out resistance at 92.51, a former support marked by the December 16 low. The bulls now aim to challenge the February 2 low at 95.41. The 92.51 level has been recast as near-term support.


Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1593.07 // +0.08 // +0.01%

Prices are probing lower after putting in a Doji candlestick below resistance marked by the 1600/oz figure as well as the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1599.17. A daily-close break below support at 1582.10, the 38.2% Fib, exposes the next downside objective at 1560.98.


Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $28.47 // -0.27 // -0.95%

Prices are reversing lower from resistance at 28.70, with sellers once again aiming to challenge support at support at 27.06. A break lower exposes the 26.05-15 area. Alternatively, a reversal back through resistance on a daily closing basis targets the next upside barrier at 28.70.


Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.502 // +0.034 // +0.98%

Prices are recoiling from resistance at 3.537, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion, to once again take aim at support marked by the 100% Fib at 3.438. A break below this boundary opens the door for a decline to 3.334. Alternatively, a reversal higher through initial resistance exposes 3.598.


Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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