WTI crude oil price recovers to 73.8 in European morning as buyers find the 5-day selloff has brought the black gold to oversold territory. Moreover, better-than-expected API inventory estimates suggest we may see pleasant surprise from today's EIA report. Others in the energy complex also rebound. Heating oil rises to 2.01(Tuesday's close: 1.99) and RBOB gasoline soars to 1.95 (Tuesday's close: 1.92).
Despite crude inventory draw, WTI crude continues to trade at a discount to Brent crude and the gap seems to be widening. The key to this issue is stockbuilds at Cushing, the delivery point of Nymex futures, which rose +1.5 mmb last week. In fact, the EIA data also shows that Cushing stocks have risen for 5 consecutive months. The phenomenon may persist in coming weeks unless refinery runs improve.
After sliding to 3-week low at 1125.3, the benchmark contract for gold rebounds to 1143.4 as the severe plunge in recent days has attracted buy-on-dips investors. While it's widely believed gold's decline was driven by strength in USD, the selloff in gold has probably been overextended. After making a record high on December 3 (1227.5), the yellow metal has lost around -7%. However, the dollar index only gained +2.6% from its lowest level that day. Certainly, profit-taking was another major factor contributing to the fall.
Worries about Dubai's default and Greece's financial stability linger. Stock markets tumble in both Asia and Europe. The MSCI Asian Pacific index slipped -0.6%. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average plunged -1.3% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped -1.4%. Another issue pressuring Japanese stocks was the downward revision of 3Q09 GDP. The Japanese Cabinet Office said that the country's GDP rose at an annual pace of +1.3%, compared with a gain of +4.8% as initially estimated.
In Europe, all benchmark indices opened lower as most European countries have high exposure on Greece. UK's FTSE 100 Index slides -0.15% while Germany's DAX index and France's CAC 40 Indices drop -0.34% and -0.13%, respectively.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is anticipated to keep its OCR unchanged at 2.5%. Economy in New Zealand expanded +0.08% qoq in 2Q09, officially taking the country out of recession. Other data, including house prices, consumer and business confidence, and CPI, also suggested recovery is underway. As economic development both domestically and globally, the central bank should deliver a more optimistic view on its economic and inflation forecasts in December's MPS.