Crude oil price remains under pressure in European morning on stock markets' decline and USD's rebound. As recent price rallies have brought risky assets' valuations to stretched levels, investors have become extremely vulnerable to bad economic news and trade restrictions between China and the US immediately triggered worries about recovery.
Inline with the Asian market, stocks open lower in Europe with UK's FTSE 100 Index sliding -0.7% to 4977. Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 also drop -0.9% and -1% to 5575 and 3698 respectively. Economic data released in the region was largely as market anticipations. Industrial production in the Eurozone contracted -0.3% mom in Jul following a -0.2% decline in the previous month. On annual basis, the gauge declined -15.9%, slightly better than consensus of -16.7%. While continued to fall, fall of employment in the 16-nation region moderated to -0.2% qoq in2Q09 compared a -0.8% decline in the prior quarter.
Earlier in Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index plunged -1.8% after making a 1-year high last week. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average lost -2.3% to settle at 10202. Strength in Japanese yen spurred concerns about the nation's recovery. In China, the Shanghai Composite Index gained +1.2% to 3027 as led by the +10% rally of Shandong Minhe Animal Husbandry after China announced investigation of US' chicken imports.
The dollar rebounds against major currencies after last week's severe selloff. Against the euro, USD recovered to 1.454 from a 9-month low. After surging for several months, euro's valuation looks stretched and a near-term correction will likely be seen.
Several Fed officials, Duke, Lacker and Yellen, will speak about financial regulations and economic outlook, While we believe main themes will remain largely the same as what the Fed said during the FOMC in September: better economic outlook but recovery will be gradual and uncertain, expansionary monetary policies should remain for some more time. Any change in tones, either more bullish or bearish, will move the currency and hence commodity prices.
Gold price falls below 1000 while silver also plunges -1.6% to 16.4 as USD strengthens. For gold, investment demand has been the crucial price driver as physical demand remains sluggish since the beginning of the year. We will monitor to see if there're capitals flowing out of the gold ETFs and/or futures after weeks of inflows. Should this be the case, investors should take profits from their long positions first.