•Euro smashes through 200-Day SMA; exposes key 1.3740 highs
•Dollar/Yen very choppy; structure looks toppish
•Cable looking to extend gains back to 1.5375 2009 highs
•Dollar/Swiss takes out March trend lows by 1.1165
•Dollar/Cad drops to fresh 2009 lows by 1.1500; long triggered @1.1540
•Australian Dollar posts another 2009 high; short triggered @0.7645
•New Zealand Dollar also surges to fresh 2009 highs above 0.6035

EUR/USD

EUR/USD - Has now retraced just over 78.6% of the major 1.3740-1.2885 move with the market likely to test next key topside resistance by 1.3585 over the coming hours. A break above 1.3585 should then accelerate gains and open a full retracement back to 1.3740. Key short-term support comes in at 1.3340 with dips expected to be well supported ahead of this level. Only back under 1.3340 will delay. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.3740

R3

4/24 high

1.3700

R2

Figure

1.3650

R1

Mid-Figure

Level

Support

Details

1.3475

S1

5/7 high

1.3400

S2

Figure

1.3340

S3

5/8 low

USD/JPY

USD/JPY - Daily studies are mixed and the market continues to chop around with no clear directional bias. Key levels to watch above and below now come in by 99.75 and 97.95 respectively, but we do not recommend taking any positions until a clearer opportunity presents. Our strategy will be to wait for studies to either show overbought or oversold before looking to enter the market. A closer look at the daily chart does seem to favor a bearish bias. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

101.45

R3

4/6 2009 High

100.00

R2

Psychological

99.75

R1

5/7 high

Level

Support

Details

98.25

S1

5/7 low

97.95

S2

5/6 low

97.15

S3

4/30 low

GBP/USD

GBP/USD - The market has shown zero follow through from Thursday's bearish outside day after reversing sharply back above Thursday's 1.5200 trend highs. Above 1.5200 now opens a direct test of the 1.5375 2009 highs. A break back below 1.4945 is required to take the pressure off of the topside. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.5375

R3

1/8 2009 High

1.5300

R2

Figure

1.5200

R1

5/7 high

Level

Support

Details

1.4980

S1

5/5 low

1.4755

S2

5/1 low

1.4705

S3

4/30 low

USD/CHF

USD/CHF - We are starting to get a little concerned with the market breaking down through critical trend support at 1.1165 on Friday to potentially open a move back to psychological barriers at 1.1000. Below 1.1000 opens a deeper drop to challenge 1.0865 which guards against the 2009 lows at 1.0610 from early January. Back above 1.1340 is required to take the pressure off of the downside. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.1425

R3

5/7 high

1.1340

R2

5/8 high

1.1245

R1

5/5 low

Level

Support

Details

1.1000

S1

Psychological

1.0865

S2

1/8 low

1.0800

S3

Figure

USD/CAD

USD/CAD - We have been attempting to buy the pair over the past several weeks with little success and little pain and have once again entered a long position on Friday by 1.1540 after stopping out at cost by 1.1660 earlier in the day. Daily studies are highly overextended and the market is due for a material corrective bounce over the coming days. We still see the pair trading in a broader range dating back to the Fall of 2008 and view any opportunities to buy at current levels below 1.2000 as compelling. The market has set fresh 2009 lows on Friday. Position: LONG @1.1540 FOR A 1.2040 OBJECTIVE, STOP @1.1290.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.1765

R3

5/7 high

1.1735

R2

5/8 high

1.1630

R1

5/7 low

Level

Support

Details

1.1500

S1

Psychological

1.1465

S2

11/5 low

1.1305

S3

10/14 low

AUD/USD

AUD/USD - Short trade triggered on Friday with the pair finally crossing over into overbought and trading above 70 on the RSI. We see limited upside potential from here and expect the market is near the point at which it will start to roll back over. Back below 0.7500 is required to confirm and accelerate declines. Fresh 2009 highs have been set on Friday. Position: SHORT @0.7645 FOR A 0.7245 OBJECTIVE, STOP @0.7845.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.7820

R3

10/3 high

0.7740

R2

10/6 high

0.7700

R1

Figure

Level

Support

Details

0.7620

S1

5/7 high

0.7510

S2

5/8 low

0.7460

S3

5/7 low

NZD/USD

NZD/USD - Has broken to fresh 2009 highs on Friday after clearing the previous 0.6035 highs from January. Daily studies still show room to run and we look for some more upside here potentially back towards 0.6085-0.6130 before considering a potential short-term reversal. Back below 0.5900 is now required to negate bullish price action and take pressure off of the topside. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.6265

R3

10/20 high

0.6130

R2

11/4 high

0.6085

R1

12/18 high

Level

Support

Details

0.5910

S1

5/8 low

0.5825

S2

5/7 low

0.5755

S3

5/6 low

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com. If you wish to receive Joel's reports in a more timely fashion, e-mail jskruger@fxcm.com and you will be added to the distribution list.

Joel Kruger publishes 6 daily pieces:

Tech Talk - A Daily Video Highlighting Technical Developments in the Overnight Session of Trade.
Monday-Friday (between 5:30am-6:30am EST)

Morning Slices - Morning Overview using Fundamental, Technical, Flow, and Quantitative Analysis (Includes Trade of the Day).
Monday-Friday (between 6:30am-7:30am EST)

Indicator of the Day - A Feature Report that Highlights our Most Significant Technical Indicator of the Day.
Monday-Friday (between 8:00am-9:00am EST)

Cross Country - A Midday Fundamental Update, along with Technical Analysis of Selected Cross Rates.
Monday-Friday (between 10:30am-11:30am EST)

Scandi Daily - A Specialized Daily Fundamental and Technical Overview of the Nordic Currencies. (This report is only distributed through email. Please contact Nordic@fxcm.com if you would like to be added to distribution.)
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Daily Classical - A Daily Technical Overview of the Major Currencies.
Monday-Friday (published between 2:00pm-3:00pm EST)