Euro trading with heavy tone into close. Dollar/Yen gains seen extending back towards 2009 highs. Cable close above 100-Day SMA opens 1.4990 retest. Dollar/Swiss gains to accelerate above 1.1345.Dollar/Cad medium-term higher low sought ahead of next upside extension. Australian Dollar failing by key 78.6% fib retrace. New Zealand Dollar unable to sustain gains above 0.5700.

EUR/USD


EUR/USD - More consolidation into Tuesday with the market going nowhere for third consecutive day. The key levels to watch above and below come in by 1.3740 and 1.3480 respectively with a break required for clear directional bias. Daily studies do show overbought and the risks are for some more consolidation to allow for studies to unwind. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.3800

R3

1/8 high

1.3740

R2

3/19 high

1.3680

R1

3/24 high

Level

Support

Details

1.3480

S1

3/24 low

1.3415

S2

3/19 low

1.3390

S3

1/19 high

USD/JPY


USD/JPY - Continues to extend gains into Tuesday after being very well supported ahead of the 50/100-Day SMAs last week. Daily studies show plenty of room to run and we favor additional upside over the coming sessions back towards and through the recent 2009 trend highs at 99.70. Only below 96.90 delays and gives reason for concern. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

99.70

R3

3/5 2009 high

99.00

R2

3/17 high

98.60

R1

3/24 high

Level

Support

Details

96.90

S1

3/24 low

95.45

S2

3/23 low

94.15

S3

3/20 low

GBP/USD


GBP/USD - Tuesday's gains have been most impressive with the market easily clearing the 100-Day SMA and looking to close above the key longer-term SMA. Daily studies still show additional room to run from here and we look for a close above the 100-Day to open a direct retest of the recent trend highs at 1.4990 from early February. However any gains beyond 1.5000 are seen limited with the broader structure still grossly bearish. Back under 1.4545 immediately shifts focus back on the downside. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.4990

R3

2/9 high

1.4900

R2

Figure

1.4845

R1

2/6 high

Level

Support

Details

1.4635

S1

100-Day SMA

1.4545

S2

3/24 low

1.4420

S3

3/23 low

USD/CHF


USD/CHF - The pair has found some decent support at current levels in the form of the 50% fib retracement off of the 1.0370-1.1970 move (1.1170) and the 200-Day SMA (1.1200). Look for a rebound from current sub-1.1500 levels back into the familiar range over the coming days. Below 1.1165 negates. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.1500

R3

Psychological

1.1460

R2

3/19 high

1.1345

R1

3/23 high

Level

Support

Details

1.1205

S1

200-Day SMA

1.1165

S2

3/19 low/50% fib

1.1110

S3

1/16 low

USD/CAD


USD/CAD - Despite the recent decline, the overall structure remains quite constructive with the current pullback still classed as corrective. Setbacks have broken down through the 61.8% fib retrace off of the 2009 low-highs but are now struggling to establish below. We are looking for a medium-term higher low by current levels and above 1.2025 (28Jan low) ahead of the next upside extension beyond 1.3065. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.2450

R3

3/20 high

1.2415

R2

3/23 high

1.2295

R1

3/24 high

Level

Support

Details

1.2190

S1

3/19 low

1.2130

S2

2/9 low

1.2025

S3

1/28 low

AUD/USD


AUD/USD - The market has stalled out by the 78.6% retrace (0.7050) off of the 2009 high-lows and could be looking to roll back over for a resumption of the broader downtrend. Look for a break below 0.6865 to confirm and accelerate declines. Only back above 0.7095 negates and exposes retest of the 0.7270, 2009 highs. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.7200

R3

Figure

0.7145

R2

3/24 high

0.7095

R1

3/24 high

Level

Support

Details

0.6965

S1

3/24 low

0.6865

S2

3/23 low

0.6845

S3

3/20 low

NZD/USD


NZD/USD - Yesterday we were short for only a small profit that was forced to be booked on the New York close. However, as anticipated, we have begun to see the onset of a much needed and healthy corrective pullback following the sharp rally out from 0.4915 back on 10Mar that resulted in 10 consecutive up-days. The daily RSI has crossed back down from overbought and stochs look to be on the verge of a negative cross. Look for a break below 0.5580 to accelerate the decline over the coming session. Only back above 0.5750 negates. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.5800

R3

Figure

0.5785

R2

78.6% Fib

0.5750

R1

3/24 high

Level

Support

Details

0.5630

S1

3/20 high

0.5580

S2

3/23 low

0.5500

S3

Figure

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
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