Euro trading with heavy tone into close. Dollar/Yen gains seen extending back towards 2009 highs. Cable close above 100-Day SMA opens 1.4990 retest. Dollar/Swiss gains to accelerate above 1.1345.Dollar/Cad medium-term higher low sought ahead of next upside extension. Australian Dollar failing by key 78.6% fib retrace. New Zealand Dollar unable to sustain gains above 0.5700.
EUR/USD - More consolidation into Tuesday with the market going nowhere for third consecutive day. The key levels to watch above and below come in by 1.3740 and 1.3480 respectively with a break required for clear directional bias. Daily studies do show overbought and the risks are for some more consolidation to allow for studies to unwind. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
USD/JPY - Continues to extend gains into Tuesday after being very well supported ahead of the 50/100-Day SMAs last week. Daily studies show plenty of room to run and we favor additional upside over the coming sessions back towards and through the recent 2009 trend highs at 99.70. Only below 96.90 delays and gives reason for concern. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
GBP/USD - Tuesday's gains have been most impressive with the market easily clearing the 100-Day SMA and looking to close above the key longer-term SMA. Daily studies still show additional room to run from here and we look for a close above the 100-Day to open a direct retest of the recent trend highs at 1.4990 from early February. However any gains beyond 1.5000 are seen limited with the broader structure still grossly bearish. Back under 1.4545 immediately shifts focus back on the downside. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
USD/CHF - The pair has found some decent support at current levels in the form of the 50% fib retracement off of the 1.0370-1.1970 move (1.1170) and the 200-Day SMA (1.1200). Look for a rebound from current sub-1.1500 levels back into the familiar range over the coming days. Below 1.1165 negates. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
USD/CAD - Despite the recent decline, the overall structure remains quite constructive with the current pullback still classed as corrective. Setbacks have broken down through the 61.8% fib retrace off of the 2009 low-highs but are now struggling to establish below. We are looking for a medium-term higher low by current levels and above 1.2025 (28Jan low) ahead of the next upside extension beyond 1.3065. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
AUD/USD - The market has stalled out by the 78.6% retrace (0.7050) off of the 2009 high-lows and could be looking to roll back over for a resumption of the broader downtrend. Look for a break below 0.6865 to confirm and accelerate declines. Only back above 0.7095 negates and exposes retest of the 0.7270, 2009 highs. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
NZD/USD - Yesterday we were short for only a small profit that was forced to be booked on the
Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
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