WTI crude oil price will likely trade within the range of 70-75 in the near-term. Although demand/supply outlook does not seem to justify a rally above 75, improved confidence towards macro-economic outlook and increase in risk appetite will likely spur buying interest in oil.
Currently trading at 73, crude oil rises for the second consecutive day as driven by strength in equity market. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose +0.6%. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained +0.6% while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index added +0.9%. On the other hand, China' Shanghai Composite Index declined -2.9% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index slid -0.7% as worries over credit tightening still lingered.
In Europe, benchmark indices generally gain in the morning session. In UK, the FTSE 100 Index climbs +1% to 4918. Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 also gain +1.4% and +1.5% to 5549 and 3702 respectively. A series of economic data was just released in Europe. In the UK, GDP contracted -0.7% qoq in 2Q09, better than -0.8% as anticipated and in the previous quarter. On annual basis, the reading was -5.5%, also came in slightly above consensus. This suggests that the nation's economy has probably hit the bottom. In the Eurozone, economic confidence surged to 80.6 in august from 76 a month ago. Analysts had forecast a rise to 78.
Gold price soars to 954 in European morning, following rise in crude oil price and weakness in the dollar. USD's movement will remain 'range-bound' in the coming month although strong employment data and Fed announcement might cause short-term volatility. Therefore, gold price will likely follow the lead and continues to trade sideways for some time. One possibility that may trigger strong buying interest in the yellow metal is India's wedding season in October. Investment demand remains sluggish. Bullion holdings in SPDR Gold Trust stay at 1061.83 metric tons over the past 3 days after dropping from 1066.41 metric tons. In August, total holdings have dropped -1.03%.
Base metals have mixed performance although the complex is generally sensitive to macroeconomic data and USD's ups and downs. LME lead for 3-month delivery will likely gain +8% this week on supply disruption in China while aluminum should fall -2.3%. LME copper probably stays largely unchanged. However, one thing in common is that price corrections have been short-lived. For instance, buying interest emerges every time when copper falls below 6000.