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One pair has tested the previous session range, and held, in trade on Thursday: Usd/Jpy. The 50 pip move has been matched by aussie and cable, but those two pairs are still trading within their previous day's range. Cad, swissy, and euro have not moved anywhere. The chances of any one pair moving, and holding, well enough to take the set-up, reduce dramatically if the rest of the dollar index components are not trading in-line, and backing the overall market-wide move.
Add to that, a global market place that has equities, bonds, and commodities trading in a tight circle, and we are left with low-probability, 20-30 pip intra-day moves. The trade plan numbers need to have 20-30 pips banked, and the Stops moved higher to lock in a potential runner, with the understanding that market momentum at the moment is fairly weak. Trends are mixed on the 4 hour charts, and momentum flows are not allowing too much movement, either way.
The forex major pairs on the 4 hour charts are showing no trend, and no momentum from which to work anything from. To expect that the ranges can break hard, with the current technical and fundamental outlook, is unrealistic. The next move will be instigated by a fundamental driver that sets things sparks some interest, and that then draws in speculative interest, that then builds into a trend.
Trading 20-30 pips and locking in profit is the way to go, but those moves do tend to take patience, and then quick responses. The trade plan numbers are hitting, and then offering quick profits; something that is not the norm, and something that historically changes in August. We are very well set to take advantage of whatever comes from the market, and going forward see plenty of opportunity from August through to year-end.