Wheat futures traded on both sides of unchanged Thursday and finished flat, with Chicago slightly firmer, Kansas City narrowly mixed and Minneapolis slightly lower. The flat-finish in the Wheat market can be attributed to a mix of Bullish and Bearish data in USDA's balance sheet adjustment today. But, this was countered by smaller-than-expected carryover for both old- and new-crop wheat.
Palm oil declined by the most in almost five months, for a second weekly loss, after estimates showed that Malaysian exports fell and as concern Europe's debt crisis may worsen damped demand for commodities.
The July-delivery contract slumped 2.2 percent to close at 3,275 ringgit ($1,060) a metric ton on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange, the biggest drop for the most-active contract since Dec. 15. Futures dropped 2.5 percent this week, after a 4.2 percent loss last week.
Shipments declined 6 percent to 450,269 tons in the first 10 days of May from the same period a month earlier, Intertek said yesterday. Exports fell 14 percent to 419,364 tons in the same period, Societe Generale de Surveillance estimated.
LTN www.livetradingnews.com Asia's leading research house is expecting a strong rebound in Agricultural prices in H2 2012 according to Economist Shayne Heffernan.
Pressure on old-crop Corn futures built into the close, with those contracts ending 0.1575 to 0.1975 lower. September Corn ended 0.1350 lower, with new-crop down 0.0575 to 0.095. Traders' initial reaction to USDA's 50-M bu. increase in Y 2011-12 Corn carryover was muted, as the general thought in the market is supplies are tighter than that. But as the Thursday progressed, sell stops were triggered to sharply extend losses.
Soybean futures closed with gains of 0.235 to 0.255 in the May through Jan 2013 contracts. Farther deferred months ended with lighter gains. This was good for a high-range close. Soybean traders had no shortage of Bullish news to digest Thursday. USDA trimmed carryover for Y 2011-12 to 210-M bu., 11-M bu. more than the average pre-report trade guess. USDA's Y 2012-13 carryover projection came in 25-M bu. below traders' expectations at 145-M bu.
Lean Hog futures saw two-sided trade today, but ended in negative territory with losses of 0.275 to 0.475 cents through the August contract. Farther deferred months posted steeper losses. Lean Hog futures faced pressure from both USDA's Supply & Demand Report and ongoing weakness in the Pork market. In this morning's report, USDA lowered its average cash Hog price projection for Y 2012 by 1.50 to 62.00.
Live Cattle futures faced increased selling into the close to finish 0.325 to 0.85 lower in the Y 2012 contracts, with Y 2013 contracts ending steady to 0.60 lower. Feeder futures finished mixed. Live Cattle started the day Thursday mixed due to calmer outside markets and uncertainty surrounding this week's cash trade. But around mid-day, traders reacted to the morning Beef report, which showed Choice values softening 1.51 and Select down 1.62.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.