Grains finished mostly lower Friday

The grain complex slid mostly lower during another quiet day. Contracts across the board closed well off session highs, setting the stage for weakness when trade resumes Sunday evening.

Wheat futures closed lower Friday, with nearby Chicago contracts posting 10 to 11 cent losses to lead the decline. On the week, Wheat futures posted sharp losses, but remained within the boundaries of the extended, choppy trading range. USDA will update its MY 2012-13 balance sheet for Wheat, including the final Y 2012-crop production estimates from the Annual Small Grains Summary that was released 28 September.

Corn futures were little changed from last week’s close as the market chopped sideways this week. Friday, futures ended around 7 to 9 cents lower through the Sept 2013 contract, while far-deferred contracts were mostly 1 to 3 cents lower. Traders will ready positions for USDA’s Crop Production Report next Thursday.

Soybean futures saw a choppy day of trade Friday and favored a weaker tone on the close. On the week, Soybean posted losses and extended the decline from contract highs. Nov beans ended the week about 50 cents below last week’s close. Traders had plenty of demand news to digest this week, but instead focused on reports of “better-than-expected” yields.


Hog futures ended the day mixed on Friday, but for the week posted gains. Nearby lean Hogs posted sharp weekly gains, with the Oct contract up more than $4.00 from last week’s close. Oct lean Hog futures are trading at around a $3.00 premium to the cash index, which signals traders expect more near-term cash strength.

Live Cattle futures ended split with nearby’s firmer and deferred months lower on the day. Most contracts ended with moderate gains on the week. Feeder Cattle futures ended with slight gains on the day and the week. Cash Cattle prospects are highly uncertain for next week. While mixed to softer boxed Beef action at the end of the week Friday signals some resistance to lofty prices, movement has remained strong.

Commodities: International Soft Comments

China will produce a record large Corn crop this year that, along with its existing stocks, would be sufficient to meet domestic demand, but the country could import supplies to build its reserves, the US Grains Council said Thursday after completing an annual crop tour.

India’s Oilmeal exports fell to 143,990 tons in September from 402,500 tons a year earlier, led by a sharp drop in the overseas sales of Soymeal and Rapeseed meal, a leading trade body said Friday.

World food prices rose in September and are seen remaining close to levels reached during the Y 2008 food crisis, the United Nations’ food agency said Thursday, while cutting its forecast for global cereal output.


Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.

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