Some bearish data releases in the US triggered a strengthening in the US dollar and the decline in the stock market which together formed the bearish scenario responsible for the usual decline in crude prices. Furthermore funds liquidating their long positions at the end of the month / quarter undoubtedly exacerbated the decline with Nigerian supply losses unable to offer counterbalance. Today's market reaction to the EIA stats could provide a helpful indication for the next direction in crude although Thursday's employment report is what everybody's after.
9 day moving average - $69.58 14 day moving average - $70.08 40 day moving average - $65.77
The most important feature in yesterday's early trading was crude touching a fresh record high for 2009 at $73.35. However that didn't last long being quickly followed by violent profit taking which eventually pushed oil price below the $70.00 mark. Although crude managed to rebound from its intraday low of $68.91 it remained into negative territory for the rest of the session settling $1.45 down at $70.30. So large swings in a session that could be described anything but quiet suggest further consolidation albeit a fairly wide range is a strong possibility.
The short term trend is sideways the medium term trend is bullish while the long term trend is bearish.
Support: $68.91 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $73.23(high of 11/06/09)
Support:$68.07 (low of 24/06/09) Resistance: $72.78(high of 16/06/09)
Support:$66.67 (low of 22/06/09) Resistance: $72.15(high of 15/06/09)
Support: $68.40 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $72.40 (high of 16/06/09)
Support:$68.05 (low of 25/06/09) Resistance: $71.96 (high of 19/06/09)
Support:$67.58 (low of 24/06/09) Resistance: $71.42 (high of 29/06/09)
DOE Stock estimates (change in millions of barrels)
Crude -1.5 Distillates+1.6 Gasoline +2.0