Crude Comment 03/07/09

Overview:

The non farm payrolls data showed the labour market in the US under increasing pressure, seriously questioning all that ‘green shoots' saga and easily spilled over into energy complex. As a result crude found itself under further downside pressure in reaction to weaker equity markets and some strengthening in the US dollar. Today's trading session in crude could be dominated by low volumes ahead of the 4 th of July holiday in the US which in turn could see sizable price volatility.

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9 day moving average - $69.01 14 day moving average - $69.31 40 day moving average - $66.18

Technical Report:

We saw crude declining sharply losing $3.18 or nearly 5% touching an intraday low of $66.27 last seen on June 23 rd . It was the third straight day of heavy losses for crude, in effect a bearish signal with the market price now at the lower end of the previously mentioned $66.26 - $73.35 consolidation range. However the 40 day moving average proved to be good support but should crude break and hold below this indicator in the next session that would technically imply a downward path.

The short term trend is sideways the medium term trend is bullish while the long term trend is bearish.

WTI:

Support: $66.27 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $70.92(high of 25/06/09)

Support:$65.98 (40 day moving average) Resistance: $70.21(high of 22/06/09)

Support:$64.96 (low of 03/06/09) Resistance: $69.70(yesterday's high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support: $66.21 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $70.51 (high of 25/06/09)

Support:$65.90 (low of 23/06/09) Resistance: $69.62 (high of 22/06/09)

Support:$65.41 (40 day moving average) Resistance: $69.19 (yesterday's high)