Despite a continuing strong equity market, the energy complex edged lower last Friday in reaction to a sharp rebound in the US dollar which reinforced again the importance of currency factors in driving oil prices. The non farm payrolls data in the US showed a better than expected loss and appeared sufficient to force a decoupling between the recent weakening in the greenback and strengthening in the stocks. Going forward crude movements are likely to be triggered more by dollar movements than equity swings, pretty much in line with the current trend.
9 day moving average - $69.69 14 day moving average - $68.73 40 day moving average - $66.87
We saw crude moving down on Friday losing $1.22 to settle at $70.58 but nevertheless continuing to stay above the short term moving averages. The important feature was undoubtedly crude reaching an intraday high of $72.88 last seen on June the 30 th and a retest of the record high for 2009 seemed increasingly possible. However what followed was a quick trip south as a result of additional sellers coming into the oil market and pushing the price down. So, all in all last week's price action was rather a sideways one within $69.71 - $72.88 range.
The short and long term trends are bearish while the medium term trend is bullish.
Support: $70.36 (Friday's low) Resistance: $73.35(high of 30/06/09)
Support:$69.72 (low of 05/08/09) Resistance: $72.88(Friday's high)
Support:$69.35 (low of 03/08/09) Resistance: $72.42(high of 06/08/09)
Support: $73.13 (Friday's low) Resistance: $76.00 (high of 06/08/09)
Support:$72.24 (low of 04/08/09) Resistance: $75.55 (Friday's high)
Support:$71.67 (low of 03/08/09) Resistance: $74.89 (high of 04/08/09)