Crude Comment 19/05/09

Overview:

Usually a number of factors combined are behind a sharp rally in crude. It was the case again yesterday with increasing civil unrest in Nigeria threatening to disrupt supplies, a weakening in the US dollar and a continued upswing in the equity markets all contributed to the advance in crude. Today's Housing starts figures could have some significant impact on the stock markets which seem to be looking for any sign of positive / not so bad data to justify the recent rallies and in turn could easily spill over into the energy complex.

9 day moving average - $59.01 14 day moving average - $57.59 40 day moving average - $54.22

Technical Report:

Yesterday sharp rally in crude saw a 2.62 dollars gain or 5% settling at $59.69 which in effect completely denied last Friday's decline. With the moving averages still bullish the rebound remained a strong possibility and the chart now shows the market price breaching back above all M.A. Having already crossed the $60.00 level in early morning puts a retest of the high of 2009 at $60.86 within reaching distance.

The short term trend is bullish, the medium term trend is sideways and the long term trend is bearish.

WTI:

Support: $56.85 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $60.86(high of 12/05/09)

Support:$55.13 (low of 06/05/09) Resistance: $60.70(high of 13/05/09)

Support:$54.56 (low of 26/03/09) Resistance: $59.92(yesterday's high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support: $55.91 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $59.43 (high of 07/11/08)

Support:$55.43 (low of 07/05/09) Resistance: $59.05 (high of 13/05/09)

Support:$53.86 (low of 06/05/09) Resistance: $58.86 (yesterday's high)