Crude Comment 13/08/09

Overview:

Yesterday's FOMC interest rate decision and its comments didn't provide any major surprises but the market reaction saw higher stocks and some weakness in the US dollar. As usual these factors offered guidance to the energy complex with crude rebounding after the previous day's sell off albeit some choppy trading activity. The weekly EIA stats were largely interpreted as rather bearish given that gasoline stocks were roughly in line with market expectations but crude and distillates showed a surprise increase in inventories. Yet again these figures were discarded in favour of financial market developments.

/c

9 day moving average - $71.01 14 day moving average - $69.49 40 day moving average - $66.82

Technical Report:

Initially crude went down yesterday crossing below the 14 day moving average and reaching an intraday low of $68.84. That attracted bargain hunters pushing oil prices back into the positive territory, denying in effect the loss we saw the day before almost completely. Technically it was an inside day with lower high and higher low which could point to consolidation inviting to caution despite a $1.11 gain or 1.5%.

The short and medium term trends are bullish while the long term trend is bearish.

WTI:

Support: $68.84 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $72.11(high of 05/08/09)

Support:$68.35 (low of 29/06/09) Resistance: $71.57(high of 10/08/09)

Support:$67.60 (low of 27/07/09) Resistance: $71.13(yesterday's high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support: $71.78 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $74.89 (high of 04/08/09)

Support:$71.67 (low of 03/08/09) Resistance: $74.20 (high of 11/08/09)

Support:$70.63 (low of 11/06/09) Resistance: $73.52 (yesterday's high)

DOE Stock Figures (change in millions of barrels)

Crude +2.5 (+0.7) Distillates+0.8 (-0.3) Gasoline -1.0 (-1.3)