Overview:

The initial show of strength in crude was largely driven by a renewed weakening in the US dollar. But the early gains proved short lived with crude's price being dragged down by a lower equity market and possibly some softer than forecasted Producer Price Index in the US which signalled lower inflation. Not there yet. Today's EIA stats could show surprising draws in crude inventories and the oil market reaction to the weekly figures should bring more light to the next immediate direction.

9 day moving average - $71.33 14 day moving average - $70.28 40 day moving average - $62.22

Technical Report:

The early trading session saw a strong rebound in crude following the previous day's steep decline which inevitable pushed the price back above the 9 day moving averages reaching an intraday high of $73.42. However failure to retest the recent high of $73.91 on June 11 th was translated in a sharp retracement. As a result crude finished the day a mere 3 cents higher at $70.85 in a consolidation move that looked like setting the stage for the next higher challenges.

The short and medium term trends are bullish and the long term trend is bearish.

WTI:

Support: $70.51 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $74.54(high of 17/10/08)

Support:$69.37 (low of 09/06/09) Resistance: $73.91(high of 11/06/09)

Support:$68.40 (low of 05/06/09) Resistance: $73.42(yesterday's high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support: $69.55 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $73.61 (high of 20/10/08)

Support:$68.56 (low of 15/06/09) Resistance: $73.29 (high of 21/10/08)

Support:$67.35 (low of 05/06/09) Resistance: $72.40 (yesterday's high)

DOE Stock estimates (change in millions of barrels)

Crude -1.7 Distillates+0.8 Gasoline +0.3