Much of the sharp rally in crude yesterday was undoubtedly supported by a stronger than expected drop in crude inventories as shown by the weekly EIA stats. The 8.4 mb draw in oil stocks was a huge surprise so attracted the most attention. While it's still debatable as to whether crude's strength drove the US dollar lower or vice versa, the disregarding of a decline in Chinese stock market could favour a bullish view. Nevertheless the overall huge surplus in crude remains a serious question.
9 day moving average - $71.92 14 day moving average - $72.41 40 day moving average - $68.36
Initially crude went down yesterday reaching an intraday low of $69.77 and as a consequence a lot of bargain hunters came into the market pushing crude prices back up. Despite widespread expectations of a rather consolidative trading session the rally continued with crude crossing above the 9 and 14 day moving averages and settling at $73.51.
The short and medium term trends are bullish while the long term trend is bearish.
Support: $72.21 (14 day moving average) Resistance: $74.51(high of 07/08/09)
Support:$71.74 (9 day moving average) Resistance: $74.44(high of 06/08/09)
Support:$69.77 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $74.30(yesterday's high)
DOE Stock Figures (change in millions of barrels)
Crude -8.4 (+1.5) Distillates-0.7 (+0.5) Gasoline -2.1 (-0.8)