Crude Comment 22/07/09

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Overview:

The upward march across the oil complex continued yesterdaywith a steady stock market and aweakerGreenback still providing bullishsentiment.We alsosee a stronger than expected August WTI contract expiration with the relative gains developed during the final hour of tradewhich appeared to represent last minute speculative short covering. Oil is lowerthis morningaftersome early profit taking and we exspect a fairly quiet startas traders wait in anticipation of the US Department of Energy weekly oil reserves report releasedlatertoday with investors potentiallyhaving already priced in a likely drop in crude stocks and closely watching US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's ongoing semi-annual economic report to Congress forindications on the state of the US economy and further price guidance for the next direction of crude.

 

9 day moving average - $62.27 14 day moving average - $62.36 40 day moving average - $66.84

Technical Report:

Technically Crude lookslikely to consolidate todayafter hitting 2-week high of$66.68 yesterday, finding resistance just short of the 14 day moving average $66.80.As the short term trend is now bullish we feelcrude needs to hold above this indicator if this rally is to have any chance of continuation but as ever we cannot rule out any suprise in toays DOE stats released at 3.30 London time.

The short term trend is bullish, long term trendremains bearish while the medium term trend is sideways.

WTI:

Support:$63.98 (Yestaerday's low) Resistance: $67.15 (high of 03/07/09)

Support:$63.39 (low of06/07/09) Resistance: $66.84 ( 40 day moving av )

Support:$63.19 (low of20/07/09) Resistance: $66.68 (high of 21/07/09)

OIL (BRENT):

Support: $65.69 ( Yesterday's low) Resistance: $68.55 (high of 02 /06/09)

Support:$65.25 (low of03/07/09) Resistance: $68.03 (high of 01/06/09)

Support:$65.19 (low of 20/07/09)Resistance: $67. 92 (high of21/07/09)

DOE Stock estimates ( change in millions of barrels)

Crude -1.2 Gasoline +0.7 Distillates +1.4

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