Following a fairly quite trading session in equity markets it was left to the renewed weakening in the US dollar versus the Euro to drive the upside recovery in crude after 2 days of heavy losses. However the usual pattern for a Tuesday is that of consolidation within the previous day's range and in broad terms yesterday was not much different. Today's EIA stats are probably going to be of increased interest given the consensus that crude is at a point where extra guidance is much needed.
9 day moving average - $69.88 14 day moving average - $70.04 40 day moving average - $63.67
Crude moved down in early trading touching in intraday low of $66.26. The decline attracted fresh buying power to the market which helped crude move into positive territory and recover some of the previous days' heavy losses. Overall crude gained $1.25 for the day to settle at $68.65 but the upward move was not enough to avoid the bearish signal shown by the expected cross between the 9 and 14 day moving averages. Further retracement towards the 40 day moving average is a distinct possibility but a retest of the recent high at $73.23 should also be considered.
The short term trend is sideways the medium term trend is bullish while the long term trend is bearish.
Support: $66.26 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $70.69(high of 09/06/09)
Support:$65.92 (low of 04/06/09) Resistance: $70.21(high of 22/06/09)
Support:$64.96 (low of 03/06/09) Resistance: $69.68(yesterday's high)
Support: $65.90 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $70.06 (high of 09/06/09)
Support:$65.49 (low of 01/06/09) Resistance: $69.62 (high of 22/06/09)
Support:$64.91 (low of 03/06/09) Resistance: $69.25 (yesterday's high)
DOE Stock estimates (change in millions of barrels)
Crude -1.4 Distillates+0.8 Gasoline +1.6