A sharp rebound in the US dollar (particularly vs The Euro) in reaction to German Chancellor Angela Merkel's comments on German debt, placed crude under big pressure initially. However on the release of consumer confidence numbers the panic relented and equities pushed higher. So despite the slight disconnection of the energy complex from the equity markets of late, yesterday's triple digit gains in the Dow Jones proved too difficult to ignore. As a result crude made a new high bolstered by a weaker US dollar which is expected to provide the primary guidance going forward.
9 day moving average - $60.49 14 day moving average - $59.64 40 day moving average - $53.80
Initially crude traded sharply lower yesterday crossing below the 9 day moving average but having found good support just below the $60.00 level significant buying power came to the oil market. Consequently a strong short term rally was established which took crude price to an intraday high of $62.55 (a new record for 2009). The volatile session established an ‘Outside Day' pattern (higher high and lower low) managing to close on the highs which technically points to further strength. $63 is the next short term target and the bulls will be looking for a close above yesterdays high to confirm the sideways trend breakout.
The short and medium term trends are bullish and the long term trend is bearish.
Support: $60.85 (low of 25/05/09) Resistance: $65.48(high of 06/11/08)
Support:$60.49 (9 day moving average) Resistance: $62.87(high of 07/11/08)
Support:$59.89 (low of 20/05/09) Resistance: $62.55(yesterday's high)
Support: $59.85 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $62.38 (high of 06/11/08)
Support:$59.23 (9 day moving average) Resistance: $61.98 (high of 10/11/08)
Support:$57.69 (low of 19/05/09) Resistance: $61.35 (yesterday's high)