Overview:

A weakening US dollar losing ground against the Euro was undoubtedly the trigger for the early rally in crude. However the energy complex appeared more influenced by lower stock markets later on which in turn dragged oil prices down with additional pressure coming from profit taking ahead of a shortened week due to Fourth of July Holiday. In the grand scheme a mixed bag of financial guidance left the battle between bulls and bears undecided as Nigerian supply disruption could easily be offset by additional OPEC production increase.

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9 day moving average - $69.42 14 day moving average - $70.10 40 day moving average - $64.94

Technical Report:

On Friday crude seemed to be toying again with the short term moving averages and in the process reached an intraday high of $71.31, last week record high. But the rally proved to be short lived as profit taking kicked in pushing crude into negative territory. As we mentioned in the previous ‘Oil Comment' consolidation within $66.00 - $73.00 range was a strong possibility and the movement in crude mirrored just that. The 40 day moving average, being a long way down also supports the chance of further retracements.

The short term trend is sideways the medium term trend is bullish while the long term trend is bearish.

WTI:

Support: $68.80 (Friday's low) Resistance: $72.15(high of 15/06/09)

Support:$68.34 (low of 25/06/09) Resistance: $71.74(high of 17/06/09)

Support:$66.67 (low of 22/06/09) Resistance: $71.31(Friday's high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support: $68.50 (Friday's low) Resistance: $71.96 (high of 19/06/09)

Support:$68.05 (low of 25/06/09) Resistance: $71.12 (high of 17/06/09)

Support:$67.58 (low of 24/06/09) Resistance: $70.81 (Friday's high)