Crude Comment  03/08/09  

9 day moving average - $67.17 14 day moving average - $65.79 40 day moving average - $66.85



Crude Oil finished the month of July around where it started at the $69 area. The energy complex rose for a second day on Friday as gains in stock markets increased optimism the global economy will rebound spurring demand for fuels, China's official purchasing Managers Index rose for a fifth month adding fuel to Crudes current bullish stance. The negligible net change during the past month belies a lot of two sided price volatility that saw Oil drop slightly to below the $60 level while approaching the $75 mark at one point. This type of wide ranging, sideways pricing activity looks likely to continue through August. Noteworthy during the month of July was the fact that as the crude showed limited change, the Dow posted a substantial rally of almost 9%. We are leaving open the possibility of a sharp sell-off across the complex with even the slightest nudge from a weakening equity market or a strengthening in the dollar that appeared to play a major role in Friday's additional price gains across the energy complex.


Support: $68.98 (low of 17/06/09) Resistance: $72.60 (high of 12/06/09)

Support: $68.44 (low of 09/06/09) Resistance: $71.91 (high of 29/06/09)

Support: $68.07 (low of 24/06/09) Resistance: $71.31 (high of 26/06/09)


Support: $70.63 (low of 11/06/09) Resistance: $75.04 (high of 15/10/08)

Support: $69.92 (low of 10/06/09) Resistance: $73.61 (high of 28/10/08)

Support: $69.55 (low of 16/06/09) Resistance: $73.50 (high of 30/06/09)

** The ODL Brent crude oil contract (Oil) trades between 07:15 and 21:00 UK Time **

** The ODL WTI crude oil contract (WTI) trades between 01:15 and 22:00 UK Time **

** The ODL Gas Oil contract (GSO) trades between 07:15 and 21:00 UK time **

The ODL oil contracts are based on the front month (March) of the ICE contracts:

Friday's Settlements Oil: September - $71.70 October - $72.21

Friday's Settlements WTI: September - $69.45 October - $ 71.15      

The ODL oil contracts roll monthly on the day before the ICE Brent front month expiry on the settlement of the front spread

Next rollover:     13/08/2009