Crude Comment   28/07/09

Overview:

Yesterday the Oil market continued to show signs of consolidation trading in a $1.36 range with the stock market and Greenback continuing to provide leading guidance. Trading near a three week and an intraday high of $68.96 most of the day's early support represented a further enhancement of economic optimism and positive US housing figures. Crude has gained over 50 percent this year and looks likely to remain in a short term sideways range for now highly correlated to the equities and currencies with traders waiting in anticipation of weekly fundamental guidance from the API and EIA reports to prompt longer term price trends. As this week proceeds, a relatively heavy calendar of economic releases as well as earnings from various oil companies should add to volatility.

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9 day moving average - $ 65.75 14 day moving average - $ 63.78 40 day moving average - $66.96

The short term trend is bullish, medium term trend is sideways,and long term trend remains bearish.

WTI:

Support: $67.60 (low of 27/07/09) Resistance: $ 70.21 (high of 22/06/09)

Support: $66.79 (low of 08/06/09) Resistance: $ 69.60 (high of 04/06/09)

Support: $65.92 (low of 04/06/09) Resistance: $ 68.96 (high 0f 27/07/09)

OIL (BRENT):                                                                                      

Support: $69.96 (low of 27/07/09) Resistance: $ 72.27 (high of 11/06/09)

Support: $69.55 (low of 16/06/09) Resistance: $ 71.96 (high of 19/06/09)

Support: $69.02 (low of 17/06/09) Resistance: $ 71.49 (high of 18/06/09)

** The ODL Brent crude oil contract (Oil) trades between 07:15 and 21:00 UK Time **

** The ODL WTI crude oil contract (WTI) trades between 01:15 and 22:00 UK Time **

** The ODL Gas Oil contract (GSO) trades between 07:15 and 21:00 UK time **

The ODL oil contracts are based on the front month (September) of the ICE contracts:

Yesterday's Settlements Oil: September - $70.81 October - $71.31

Yesterday's Settlements WTI: September - $68.38 October -   $70.05       

The ODL oil contracts roll monthly on the day before the ICE Brent front month expiry on the settlement of the front spread

Next rollover: 13/08/2009