Crude Comment 04/08/09        


9 day moving average - $67.80 14 day moving average - $66.46 40 day moving average - $66.86


Yesterday's furthered upside price surge again represented a number of factors but focus remains on an ongoing enhancement of risk appetite that is fueling buying interest across the financial and commodity spaces. Although good gains in the Dow provided some price support, the larger driver of strength appearred as being the multi month highs in the euro against the US dollar. The Greenback weakening continues to force a substantial amount of passive or non-traditional capital into the energy complex in the process of overshadowing seemingly bearish fundamentals. However, the financials were not the only drivers at work in yesterday's trade as supportive manufacturing data out of China combined with a reported record pace of refinery activity in the country spurred additional buying in Crude .


Support: $69.81 (low of 10/06/09) Resistance: $72.60 (high of 12/06/09)

Support: $69.35 (low of 03/08/09) Resistance: $72.19 (high of 03/08/09)

Support: $68.98 (low of 17/06/09) Resistance: $71.78 (high of 10/06/09)


Support: $71.67 (low of 03/08/09) Resistance: $78.42 (high of 13/10/08)

Support: $69.97 (low of 15/10/08) Resistance: $75.04 (high of 15/10/08)

Support: $69.41 (low of 20/10/08) Resistance: $73.95 (high of 03/08/09)

** The ODL Brent crude oil contract (Oil) trades between 07:15 and 21:00 UK Time **

** The ODL WTI crude oil contract (WTI) trades between 01:15 and 22:00 UK Time **

** The ODL Gas Oil contract (GSO) trades between 07:15 and 21:00 UK time **

The ODL oil contracts are based on the front month (March) of the ICE contracts:

Friday's Settlements Oil: September - $73.55 October - $73.98

Friday's Settlements WTI: September - $71.58 October - $ 73.18   

The ODL oil contracts roll monthly on the day before the ICE Brent front month expiry on the settlement of the front spread

Next rollover:     13/08/2009