Crude futures are trading back below the highly psychological $70/bbl as investors snap up a beaten down Dollar. The lack of economic data is allowing investors to comfortably cash in some profits ahead of Wednesday's wave of econ data and central bank meetings. Crude remains within the $68-$72/bbl range established by OPEC. Strong economic data last week failed to send crude beyond our 3rd tier downtrend line and previous 2009 highs. Furthermore, the third large decline in inventories in the past four weeks received limited response from bulls. Therefore, investors are clearly waiting for U.S. equities and the Dollar to make another directional decision. The Dollar is trading at or near important technical resistances and supports across the board. Investors are naturally hesitating at these technical levels, creating a cautiously optimistic environment for crude's medium-term uptrend line. However, we have little reason to fundamentally shift our near-term positive outlook on the EUR/USD, gold and the S&P futures. Therefore, crude's medium-term uptrend line is alive and well for the time being. On the other hand, our 1st tier uptrend line represents an important technical cushion since it runs through September lows. A decline below these levels on heightened volume could result in a brisk selloff in Crude. As for the topside, crude faces several technical barriers, including 9/17 and 8/25 highs. Furthermore, we recognize multiple downtrend lines and the psychological $70/bbl and $75/bbl levels bearing down on price. Hence, crude does have quite a few topside challenges at the moment, limiting any immediate-term upward movements in price. Investors should keep a close eye on activity in the Dollar and U.S. equities come Wednesday since volatility should come to life.
Resistances: $69.70/bbl, $70.09/bbl, $70.45/bbl, $70.95/bbl, $71.42/bbl
Supports: $69.11/bbl, $68.51/bbl, $68.05/bbl, $67.78/bbl, $67.47/bbl
Psychological: $70/bbl, $75/bbl