Crude's psychological $80/bbl level has finally given way as our 2nd tier downtrend line reaches an inflection point with what are now our 2nd and 3rd tier uptrend lines. Crude futures have even declined beneath our new 1st tier uptrend line, which runs through previous November lows. Therefore, November lows could be in jeopardy, meaning a retracement towards the psychological $75/bbl level may be in order. However, the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and gold are holding up relatively well considering today's negative data, buoying crude and helping prevent a more exacerbated pullback for the time being. That being said, any broad-based preference for the Dollar as the session progresses may be enough to knock crude towards $75/bbl. As for the topside, crude still faces our two downtrend lines while the psychological $80/bbl continues to serve as a tough topside barrier.
In terms of today's econ data, both the U.S. headline Unemployment Rate and Services Employment Change data points printed worse than analyst expectations. The 10.2% Unemployment is particularly troublesome and it takes a bite out of crude's expected aggregate demand. On the other hand, today's weekly inventories came in shallow, meaning the supply side of the equation is helping mitigate some of today's downward momentum. Meanwhile, investors should keep a close eye on U.S. equities and the Greenback as the week comes to a close. Volatility may increases later in the session as investors digest what has happened this week in regards to unemployment and central bank monetary policies.
Resistances: $78.14/bbl, $78.63/bbl, $79.28/bbl, $79.82/bbl, $80.43/bbl
Supports: $77.02/bbl,$76.63/bbl, $75.82/bbl, $75.31/bbl, $74.90/bbl
Psychological: $75/bbl, $80/bbl