Total crude oil and petroleum product stock surged +4.44 mmb in the week ended June 11. Crude oil inventory increased +1.69 mmb to 363.1 mmb in the week ended June 11, compared with market expectations of a dip of -1.75 mmb. The gain came mainly from Midwest where +1.69 mmb was recorded, partly offset by slides in the East Coast and the Rocky Mountain. The Gulf Coast also saw mild increase. Stock at Cushing, where WTI crude is stored, added +0.19 mmb to 37.6 mmb during the week. Utilization rate slid to 87.9% from 89.1 a week ago.

Gasoline stockpile slipped -0.64 mmb to 218.3 mmb while distillate rose +1.8 mmb to 156.6 mmb.

WTI crude oil dropped to 76.22 shortly after the report but price recovered swiftly. Indeed, the set of inventory data is not bullish as there were rises in both crude and distillate inventories. Although gasoline stockpile declined, the reduction was too little during driving season.

Weekly change in inventory as of 11/06/10
Market Expectation

Crude oil
250 mmb
+1.69 mmb
-1.75 mmb
-1.83 mmb

-0.64 mmb
+0.63 mmb
+/- 0 mmb

156.6 mmb
+1.80 mmb
+1.00 mmb
+1.84 mmb

Comparison between API and EIA reports:

API (Jun 11)
EIA (Jun 11 )

Forecast (using API's inventory level)

Crude oil
+0.58 mmb
358.8 mmb
-4.54 mmb
-3.42 mmb
359 mmb

+1.30 mmb
220.3 mmb
+1.48 mmb
+3.02 mmb
222 mmb

+2.10 mmb
153.6 mmb
+3.00 mmb
-0.82 mmb
154 mmb

API collects stockpile information on a voluntary basis from operators of refineries, 76% of the time, using data in the past 4 years.

Source: Bloomberg, API, EIA