CRUDE OIL (futures): Downside pressure triggered off the 83.93 level, its 2010 high continues to extend declining below its long term trendline at 73.55 to close the week lower at 72.67 on Friday. The mentioned trendline was drawn from its 2009 low at 35.66 through its Dec 14'09 low at 68.69. With a loss of the 73.55 level established, we see risk for further downside weakness towards its psycho level at the 70.00 level with a violation of there opening up further downside weakness towards the 68.69 level, its Dec 14'09 low and then its Sept 25'09 low at 65.03. Its weekly and daily RSI are bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. On the other hand, the commodity will have to break and close above its invalidated longer term trendline to open up further upside risk towards its Jan 19'10 high at 79.43. Beyond that level will clear the way for a run at the 83.93 level with a cut through there resuming its medium term uptrend and setting the stage for a run at its weekly 200 ema at 84.63 ahead of its .50 fibonacci retracement(147.24-35.50 declines) at 90.19.On the whole, with weakness triggered off the 83.93 level still in force, risk of further downside remains on the cards towards the 70.00 level.

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