Crude Oil a Buy as Panic Selling Begins

 
on September 18 2012 5:35 PM

Crude Oil seeing "Panic Selling" trading

DK, MPC, PSX, WNR, USO, XOM

The unusual, and unexplained, drop in the price of Crude Oil Monday has created some serious shake outs in the price and the trends in oil. With NYMEX WTI Crude reaching to just over $100.25 Friday, Crude Oil was still between 99.00 and 99.50 Monday before the floor came out from under Crude Oil's footing.

Selling pressure started and then the price drop went from 98.75 down to under 96.00 in a few minutes.

Speculation was that the Obama administration was considering a tapping effort of the strategic petroleum reserve. That was effectively refuted, even if it was called an option that can be used. Then the fat-finger trading error seemed to be the cause, but the trading volume did not support the price action. Traders and market pundits have been all over the media late yesterday and this morning saying that the sell-off was not supported by the volume. Now some talk seems to be around an options expiration date in Crude Oil, but there may have been a natural inflection point as the largest culprit.

A chart review shows that there would have likely been many stop-gap and program levels hit after oil challenged 98.50 bbl. The drop seems unusually high for such a simple explanation, but a break under 98.50 or so sure looks like it would have triggered many exits all running for the door at once.

United States Oil (NYSEMKT:USO) tanked with Crude Oil Monday, but the exchange traded product is up over 0.3% at $35.87 in late-morning trading.

It was north noting that Credit Suisse lowered its ratings to Neutral from Outperform on the independent refining sector. The firm downgraded Delek US Holdings Inc. (NYSE: DK) and its shares fell almost 5% on the day. Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE:MPC), Phillips 66 (NYSE PSX) and Western Refining Inc. (NYSE WNR) were all also cut to Neutral, and these are all down about 1.5% to 2.5% after the downgrades.

The integrated Oil and Gas giants are not quite as fast to react to oil prices.

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) ticked down yesterday but shares are up 0.3% at $92.18 so far today, and it is important to realize that the year-high is only $92.50.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.

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