Despite weakness in the housing starts data which brought fresh doubts about the sector reaching a bottom, the equity markets had a relative quiet day so it was some renewed weakening in the US dollar offering support to crude market. Many analysts continue to emphasize the civil unrest in Nigeria but probably the bullish technical picture has the upper hand. Today’s trading session in crude will keep the focus on the weekly EIA data, expected to see a slight draw in inventories. At the same time any surprise figure could be easily shrugged off by the energy complex in favour of stocks / currency.

9 day moving average - $59.42

14 day moving average - $58.27

40 day moving average - $54.27

Technical Report:

Crude continued its upward trend reaching an intraday high of $60.99 which also is a record high for 2009 last seen on Nov 11th. Nevertheless the rally ran out of steam and consequently crude gave back some of the gains but managed to settle 75 cents up at $60.49. The chart shows the short term moving averages pointing higher with the next upside resistance around $63.00 mark although some consolidation at the current levels could also be taken into consideration.

The short term trend is bullish, the medium term trend is sideways and the long term trend is bearish.

WTI:

Support: $58.93 (yesterday’s low) Resistance: $63.52 (high of 07/11/08)

Support: $58.34 (low of 13/05/09) Resistance: $62.95 (high of 11/11/08)

Support: $57.54 (low of 14/05/09) Resistance: $60.99 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support: $57.69 (yesterday’s low) Resistance: $62.38 (high of 06/11/08)

Support: $56.87 (low of 12/05/09) Resistance: $61.98 (high of 10/11/08)

Support: $55.91 (low of 18/05/09) Resistance: $59.65 (yesterday’s high)

DOE Stock estimates (change in millions of barrels)

Crude -0.7 Distillates unchanged Gasoline -1.4