Crude Oil Commentary

By @ibtimes on

Overview:

Long overdue following recent price acceleration, Friday's pullback in crude was triggered again by the strength in the US dollar which reiterated once more its importance as the main driver in the energy complex. In turn, the up movement in the greenback came in reaction to comments by European Central Bank's Trichet saying the economic outlook is still difficult and unpredictable. Although long liquidation ahead of week end might have played a role, the currency / equity market are likely to provide guidance for crude investors within the foreseeable future.

9 day moving average - $70.00 14 day moving average - $68.61 40 day moving average - $60.26

Technical Report:

As crude went ahead of itself in the last few sessions looking a little bit overbought we mentioned in the previous ‘Oil Report' the possibility of a retracement towards the short term moving averages. It did so last Friday reaching an intraday low of $70.82 which brought additional buyers to the market and consequently crude settled only 31 cents lower at $72.20. Although further profit taking cannot be discarded as proven by lower movement in the early trading today, for the moment the overall uptrend is still intact.

The short and medium term trends are bullish and the long term trend is bearish.

WTI:

Support: $70.82 (Friday's low) Resistance: $74.28 (high of 17/10/08)

Support: $70.51 (low of 10/06/09) Resistance: $73.23 (high of 11/06/09)

Support: $70.00 (9 day moving average) Resistance: $72.60 (Friday's high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support: $69.99 (Friday's low) Resistance: $73.29 (high of 21/10/08)

Support: $69.16 (9 day moving average) Resistance: $72.27 (high of 11/06/09)

Support: $68.24 (low of 09/06/09) Resistance: $71.64 (Friday's high)

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