Crude Comment 19/06/09

Overview:

The upside momentum in crude seems to be slowing as the last few sessions were dominated by consolidation moves. So mild equity strength provided upside impetus but easily denied by the US dollar rebound against the Euro which in turn kept crude price at bay. While a bullish approach is clearly favoured the energy complex continues to look for guidance especially in the currency market and distinctly the impact of a seasonal sell off in the equity market.

9 day moving average - $71.91 14 day moving average - $70.86 40 day moving average - $63.23

Technical Report:

Just like in the previous session crude declined in early trading although it remained above the $70.00 mark. The 14 day moving average proved good support level and failure to breach it has brought renewed buying interest pushing crude price back higher. Losing a mere 20 cents to finish at $71.82 indicates another quiet day and as we mentioned in yesterday's report more consolidation within the $70 - $73 range is potentially under way. However in the big picture the uptrend remains intact.

The short and medium term trends are bullish and the long term trend is bearish.

WTI:

Support: $70.82 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $73.42 (high of 16/06/09)

Support: $69.71 (low of 17/06/09) Resistance: $72.97 (high of 15/06/09)

Support: $68.40 (low of 05/06/09) Resistance: $72.31 (yesterday's high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support: $69.80 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $72.40 (high of 16/06/09)

Support: $69.02 (low of 17/06/09) Resistance: $71.64 (high of 12/06/09)

Support: $68.56 (low of 15/06/09) Resistance: $71.49 (yesterday's high)