Despite a generally weak US dollar which tends to be the main driver in pushing the energy complex higher, crude was badly hurt on Friday. It is possible this breather in crude's advance could mirror the standoff in the equity market capable of dictating direction from time to time. Profit taking ahead of weekend may have also been a strong incentive for oil market investors. Nevertheless it's widely expected the currency market to remain the most influencing factor guiding the next direction in crude.
9 day moving average - $70.92 14 day moving average - $70.05 40 day moving average - $62.80
We saw a sharp sell off in crude on Friday in an ‘Outside Day' pattern which engulfed the previous day's range (higher high and lower low). The move was significant as crude dropped $1.87 or 3% settling at $69.55 so it was no surprise to see a cross below the 9 and 14 day moving averages. Last week's failure to retest the high of $73.23 on June 11 th seems to have slowed the upward momentum with crude being now on a consolidation path. It remains to be seen if crude has further to retrace or is ready to challenge again the abovementioned high.
The short and medium term trends are bullish and the long term trend is bearish.
Support: $68.88 (Friday's low) Resistance: $73.23 (high of 11/06/09)
Support: $68.44 (low of 09/06/09) Resistance: $72.78 (high of 16/06/09)
Support: $67.50 (low of 05/06/09) Resistance: $72.30 (Friday's high)
Support: $68.63 (Friday's low) Resistance: $72.40 (high of 16/06/09)
Support: $68.24 (low of 09/06/09) Resistance: $72.27 (high of 11/06/09)
Support: $67.35 (low of 05/06/09) Resistance: $71.96 (Friday's high)