Crude futures are leveling off below the psychological $80/bbl level as investors digest another wave of negatively mixed econ data. As far as crude is concerned, the weak Industrial Production number is a bit worrisome since a pullback in production could take a bite out of the aggregate demand for and consumption of crude. On a positive note, although the Euro is logging sizable gains against the Dollar today, the GBP/USD and gold are holding up comparatively well. Furthermore, the S&P futures are still trading above their highly psychological 1100 level. As a result, crude has opted to consolidate until both the Dollar and U.S. equities make a more substantial directional commitment. That being said, a follow-through topside movement in the S&P futures beyond 1100 could weaken the Dollar and give crude a boost towards $80/bbl and our 2nd tier downtrend line. Meanwhile, investors will receive another wave of key economic data tomorrow along with weekly crude inventories. Investors are expecting a slight pullback from 1.8 million barrels to 1.2 million barrels. Weekly inventories data was a market mover last week, meaning investors should monitor tomorrow's release.
Technically speaking, crude still faces multiple topside barriers in the form of our 1st and 2nd tier downtrend lines along with the psychological $80/bbl level. Furthermore, a movement back above our key 1st tier uptrend line could prove to be a positive development for crude. As for the downside, there are a couple potential uptrend lines we can form while 11/16 and 11/13s lows serve as technical cushions.
Resistances: $78.62/bbl, $79.15/bbl, $79.55/bbl, $80.02/bbl, $80.45/bbl, $81.01/bbl
Supports: $77.85/bbl, $77.34/bbl, $77.03/bbl, $76.54/bbl, $75.54/bbl
Psychological: 2009 highs, $75/bbl, $80/bbl