Crude Oil Continues Fluctuations Towards $80/bbl

 @ibtimes
on November 23 2009 2:15 PM

Crude futures are continuing their consolidative behavior around the highly psychological $80/bbl area. Crude is popping from Friday lows in reaction to broad based weakness in the Dollar, and the S&P futures strengthening above their psychological 1100 level again. Meanwhile, gold is skyrocketing towards $1175/oz as investors divest from the Dollar and flock towards the precious metal instead. All of today's developments are positive catalysts for crude and keep its uptrend alive and well. However, crude still faces headwinds in the form of our 2nd tier downtrend line, $80/bbl, and previous November highs. Therefore, it seems crude may opt to wait and see how tomorrow's U.S. Prelim GDP number fares. That being said, investors should monitor the reaction of the Dollar and U.S. equities upon the release of tomorrow's GDP number along with a host other U.S., EU, and British econ data. A breakout in the S&P and/or EUR/USD could help push crude beyond its aforementioned technical barriers. As for the downside, Crude managed to avoid a retest of 11/13 lows and $75/bbl on Friday, a positive development. Our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend lines serve as technical cushions along with 11/20 and 11/13 lows. If conditions should deteriorate, $75/bbl could prove to be a reliable psychological support.

Price: $79.33/bbl

Resistances: $79.91/bbl, $80.25/bbl, $80.49/bbl, $80.90/bbl, $81.32/bbl, $81.62/bbl

Supports: $78.94/bbl, $78.66/bbl, $78.29/bbl, $77.92/bbl, $77.26/bbl, $76.78/bbl

Psychological: $80/bbl, 2009 Highs, $75/bbl

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