Crude oil's break of 44.97 minor support with mild bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI are taken as the first signal that rebound from 33.55 has completed. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside. Further break of 39.44 support will confirm this case and bring retest of 33.55 low. On the upside, while another rise cannot be ruled out for the moment, note that rise from 33.55 is treated as part of sideway consolidation that started at 34.98 only. Hence, upside should be limited by 50.47 and bring medium term down trend resumption.
In the bigger picture, while downside momentum is clearly diminishing with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, there is no indication of a bottom yet. Price actions from 34.98 is still treated as sideway consolidation in the medium term down trend only. Break of 33.55 will suggest decline resumption towards long term trend line support (monthly semi-log chart) at 27 level or lower. . However, note that we'll continue to look for reversal signal as crude oil enter into 17.12/33.5 key long term support zone.
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Daily Chart