Crude oil recovers again after being supported by short term rising channel. Outlook remains unchanged for the moment. Another rise towards 50.47 resistance cannot be ruled out. But after all, since rise from 33.55 is treated as part of sideway consolidation that started at 34.98 only, upside is expected to be limited by 50.47 resistance and bring medium term down trend resumption. Below 42.08 will suggest that this rise from 33.55 has finally completed with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. In such case, intraday bias will be flipped back to the downside for retesting 33.55 low first.
In the bigger picture, while downside momentum is clearly diminishing with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, there is no indication of a bottom yet. Price actions from 34.98 is still treated as sideway consolidation in the medium term down trend only. Break of 33.55 will suggest decline resumption towards long term trend line support (monthly semi-log chart) at 27 level or lower.. However, note that we'll continue to look for reversal signal as crude oil enter into 17.12/33.5 key long term support zone.
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Daily Chart