Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's recovery was brief and recent fall from 92.37 resumed by dropping to as low as 85.11 so far. As noted before, the break of 86.83 support suggests that whole rise from 70.76 has completed at 92.58 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Intraday bias is now back on the downside for 80.06 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 87.79 will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But after all, near term outlook remains cautiously bearish as long as 92.58/37 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Such rally is treated as the second wave of the consolidation pattern that started at 147.27 (2008 high). 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 is already met and there is no sign of reversal yet. Further rise could still be seen to 61.8% retracement at 103.70 and possibly above. On the downside, break of 80.06 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal and break of 64.23 is needed to confirm. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart


Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Daily Chart