Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's fall from 92.84 extends further to as low as 87.17 so far today. The break of 88.40 minor support argues that rise from 85.11 is finished. Also, it's dampening the bullish view that recent up trend is resuming. Instead, intraday bias is now back to the downside for 85.11 support and break will be an early signal of topping. On the upside, above 89.54 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, crude oil is losing upside momentum as seen with mild bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no clear sign of reversal yet. As long as 85.11 support holds, up trend from 33.2 might still continue. Such rise from 33.2 is treated as the second wave of the consolidation pattern that started at 147.27 (2008 high) and could still extend towards 61.8% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 103.70. However, break of 85.11 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and will turn focus back to 64.23 support for confirmation.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart


Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Daily Chart