Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

With 88.45 resistance intact, Crude oil's fall from 92.84 is still expected to continue to 85.11 key support first. Decisive break there will be an early signal of reversal and should bring deeper fall to medium term rising channel support (now at 82.0). On the upside, above 89.54 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside and turn focus back to 92.84 high instead.

In the bigger picture, crude oil is losing upside momentum as seen with mild bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no clear sign of reversal yet. As long as 85.11 support holds, up trend from 33.2 might still continue. Such rise from 33.2 is treated as the second wave of the consolidation pattern that started at 147.27 (2008 high) and could still extend towards 61.8% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 103.70. However, break of 85.11 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and will turn focus back to 64.23 support for confirmation.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

width=479

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Daily Chart

width=479