Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's rally extends further to as high as 106.82 today so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 100% projection of 64.23 to 92.58 from 83.85 at 112.20 next. On the downside, below 104.25 minor support will suggest that a short term top is in place with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. In such case, we'd expect lengthier consolidations first before up trend continues.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 33.2 is still in progress and is possibly re-accelerating again. Stronger rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 33.2 to 83.95 from 64.23 at 114.98. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that such rally is the second wave of the consolidation pattern from that started at 147.27 (2008 high). Hence, we'd start to look for reversal signal again above 114.98 projection level. But after all, 83.85 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal and break of 64.23 is needed to confirm. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart


Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Daily Chart