Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Intraday bias in Crude oil remains on the downside with 77.40 minor resistance intact and further decline is still expected. As noted before, the break of near term rising trend line suggests that rebound from 64.23 is finished at 82.97 already. Break of 71.09 support will confirm this bearish case and bring deeper fall towards 64.23 support. On the upside, above 77.40 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will now remain on the downside as long as 82.97 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, choppy rebound from 64.23 is treated as a correction to fall from 87.15 only and has possibly finished at 82.97 already. Break of 71.09 will affirm this case and indicate that whole fall from 87.15 is resuming for 60 psychological level, (50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18, 100% projection of 87.15 to 64.23 from 82.97 at 60.05). Decisive break there will indicate that fall from 87.15 is developing into a powerful impulsive wave and would target 33.2 low. On the upside, even in case of another rise, focus will remain on reversal signal as crude oil enters into resistance zone of 82.97/87.15.

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