CRUDE OIL: Crude Oil: Consolidating With Eyes On The Upside
CRUDE OIL (futures): Crude Oil continues to maintain its medium term uptrend bias though consolidating following several failed attempts on the upside. While holding above its LT rising trendline drawn from its Feb'09 low (35.66) and the 74.93 level, its Aug 25'09 high, the mentioned uptrend remains intact. Although Crude Oil is lagging behind Gold in terms of upside offensive and continuation of its medium term uptrend, from the big picture perspective, the commodity's chart is healthy and looks to activate that trend on ending its current consolidation. Crude Oil had in July 2008 lost momentum after hitting its all time high at 147.24 and collapsed sharply lower for the following six months before finally bottoming out at 35.66 in early Feb'09. That bottoming process culminated in a full-blown rally after decisively violating the 50.44 level, its Jan'09 high pushing to a high of 81.95 in late Oct'09. This came on the back of prolonged triangle pattern consolidation which finally resolved higher on Oct 14'09. The commodity is now consolidating above the mentioned triangle assuming a role reversal rule in technical analysis. Immediate upside risk is seen towards the 81.95 level, its YTD high with a break above there resuming its medium term uptrend towards its 200 ema at 85.30.A loss of that level will set Crude Oil up for a move towards its .50 Ret(147.24-35.50 declines) at 90.17. To the downside, initial support resides at its Aug'09 high/horizontal trendline at 74.93 where a reversal of roles ahead of its triangle pattern congestion highs is expected. Further down, its LT rising trendline standing the 72.51 level will be targeted. On the whole, with its major emas pointing higher and its LT rising trendline remaining intact, threats remain higher for the resumption of medium term uptrend now on hold.