Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

 

Crude

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis February 24, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is currently trading 1.0792 after breaking through the 108.00 price level. The U.S. dollar mostly weakened Thursday while Oil continued to soar, after a boost from a stronger-than-expected jump registered in a closely followed gauge of German business confidence.

The relative strength of Germany goes some way to explain the apparent resilience of the euro to the euro-zone crisis through most of last year and so far in 2012. The EU is hoping Germany can lead it out of the economic downtrend.

The Energy Information Administration reported an increase of 1.6 million barrels in the nation's crude supplies for the week ended Feb. 17.

Analysts polled by Platt's had expected an increase of about 1.7 million barrels.

Continued mounting pressures between Israel and Iran caused markets to worry along with the supply line disruption caused by the embargo and Iran's halt to shipments to France and the some EU nations.

US unemployment data today showed the week ending February 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 351,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised figure of 351,000. The 4-week moving average was 359,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised average of 366,000. Existing home sales increased 4.3% to an annual rate of 4.57 million in January. But the gain came only because the National Association of Realtors sharply lowered December sales to 4.38 million. If December sales had stayed at their original 4.61 million, January sales would have been down slightly.

The European Commission sharply reduced its forecasts for growth in the EU and the Eurozone for 2012 while also raising its forecasts for inflation, suggesting that the European economy could struggle with stagflation in 2012 The Commission said the economy in the 27-member EU will not grow at all this year. Raises 2012 CPI forecast to +2.1% from +1.7% EUR/USD dipped 10 pips on the release but is holding firm around 1.3320

In the UK Jan Mortgage Approvals Highest Since Dec 2009 says British Bankers Assn. January mortgage approvals rose to their highest level since December 2009, with re-mortgaging continuing to decline, according to latest British Bankers' Association data. The data add to a raft of evidence of a pick-up in housing market activity. Jan approvals for homes  38,092, vs 36,553 in Dec

Germany cuts 2012 machine output growth forecast to 0% (+4%) - real machine output 2011 +12% vs. forecast of +14% - Germany machine output for 2011 & 2010 combined +22% - Germany preliminary December machine output -1.9% y/,y. Also Germany's Business morale up more than expected.

Italian consumer confidence rose to 94.2 from 91.8 in Jan when it had posted a 16-year low. The improvement was the result of better sentiment in the general economic climate and future outlook, partly offset by consumers' worsening sentiment in other components of the index, including personal and current climate. -Consumers' sentiment

February 23, 2012 Economic Data forecast v. actual

HKD

 
 
 

Hong Kong Trade Balance 

-8.9B

 

-25.0B

 

-48.9B

 
 

EUR

 
 
 

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

109.6

 

108.8

 

108.3

 
 

EUR

 
 
 

German Current Assessment 

117.5

 

116.5

 

116.3

 
 

EUR

 
 
 

German Business Expectations 

102.3

 

102.0

 

100.9

 
 

EUR

 
 
 

Italian Consumer Confidence 

94.2

 

90.0

 

91.8

 
 

GBP

 
 
 

BBA Mortgage Approvals 

38.1K

 

37.3K

 

36.6K

 
 

GBP

 
 
 

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-3

 

-13

 

-16

 
 

USD

 
 
 

Initial Jobless Claims 

351K

 

354K

 

351K

 
 

CAD

 
 
 

Corporate Profits (QoQ) 

9.0%

 
 
 

-0.5%

 
 

USD

 
 
 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3392K

 

3460K

 

3444K

 
 

Crude Oil Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
103.020
103.830
104.870
105.680
106.720
107.530
108.570

Fibonacci
103.830
104.537
104.973
105.680
106.387
106.823
107.530

Camarilla
105.401
105.571
105.740
105.680
106.080
106.249
106.419

Woodie's
-
103.888
104.985
105.738
106.835
107.588
-

DeMark's
-
-
107.125
105.883
105.275
-
-