Economic Events: (GMT)
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Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis February 24, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
Crude Oil is currently trading 1.0792 after breaking through the 108.00 price level. The U.S. dollar mostly weakened Thursday while Oil continued to soar, after a boost from a stronger-than-expected jump registered in a closely followed gauge of German business confidence.
The relative strength of Germany goes some way to explain the apparent resilience of the euro to the euro-zone crisis through most of last year and so far in 2012. The EU is hoping Germany can lead it out of the economic downtrend.
The Energy Information Administration reported an increase of 1.6 million barrels in the nation's crude supplies for the week ended Feb. 17.
Analysts polled by Platt's had expected an increase of about 1.7 million barrels.
Continued mounting pressures between Israel and Iran caused markets to worry along with the supply line disruption caused by the embargo and Iran's halt to shipments to France and the some EU nations.
US unemployment data today showed the week ending February 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 351,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised figure of 351,000. The 4-week moving average was 359,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised average of 366,000. Existing home sales increased 4.3% to an annual rate of 4.57 million in January. But the gain came only because the National Association of Realtors sharply lowered December sales to 4.38 million. If December sales had stayed at their original 4.61 million, January sales would have been down slightly.
The European Commission sharply reduced its forecasts for growth in the EU and the Eurozone for 2012 while also raising its forecasts for inflation, suggesting that the European economy could struggle with stagflation in 2012 The Commission said the economy in the 27-member EU will not grow at all this year. Raises 2012 CPI forecast to +2.1% from +1.7% EUR/USD dipped 10 pips on the release but is holding firm around 1.3320
In the UK Jan Mortgage Approvals Highest Since Dec 2009 says British Bankers Assn. January mortgage approvals rose to their highest level since December 2009, with re-mortgaging continuing to decline, according to latest British Bankers' Association data. The data add to a raft of evidence of a pick-up in housing market activity. Jan approvals for homes 38,092, vs 36,553 in Dec
Germany cuts 2012 machine output growth forecast to 0% (+4%) - real machine output 2011 +12% vs. forecast of +14% - Germany machine output for 2011 & 2010 combined +22% - Germany preliminary December machine output -1.9% y/,y. Also Germany's Business morale up more than expected.
Italian consumer confidence rose to 94.2 from 91.8 in Jan when it had posted a 16-year low. The improvement was the result of better sentiment in the general economic climate and future outlook, partly offset by consumers' worsening sentiment in other components of the index, including personal and current climate. -Consumers' sentiment
February 23, 2012 Economic Data forecast v. actual
Hong Kong Trade Balance
German Ifo Business Climate Index
German Current Assessment
German Business Expectations
Italian Consumer Confidence
BBA Mortgage Approvals
CBI Industrial Trends Orders
Initial Jobless Claims
Corporate Profits (QoQ)
Continuing Jobless Claims
Crude Oil Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)
Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3