Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is trading at 104.94 down from the opening of 1.0566 after falling as low as 103.81, as Crude went for a wild ride today.

Earlier in the day, the following news was reported, U.S. president Barack Obama and U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron talked about releasing emergency oil reserves at a meeting on Wednesday in Washington; Reuters reported citing people familiar with the talks.

Later in the day a major news source ran the above story with one major different, the news claimed that Obama and Cameron had reached agreements and would be releasing oil from the strategic reserves.

Within minutes Crude oil tumbled to hit a low of 103.81. Shortly thereafter the story was retracted even the White House made an announcement that the story was false. Crude quickly regained its momentum and has moved up to 104.94 still down for the day.

In likelihood Crude will continue falling slowly, as supply outpaces demand.

Even as optimistic data is released from the US, the decline in China and drops in the G20 GDP will continue to reduce demand, regardless of the oil embargo.

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Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

Released Economic Reports for March 15, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Mar. 15

09:30

 

CHF

 
 
 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.00%

 

0.00% 

 

0.00% 

 
 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 
 
 

ECB Monthly Report 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

11:00

 

EUR

 
 
 

Employment Change (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.2% 

 
 

 

13:30

 

USD

 
 
 

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.4% 

 
 

 

13:30

 

USD

 
 
 

PPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.5% 

 

0.1% 

 
 

 

13:30

 

USD

 
 
 

Initial Jobless Claims 

351K

 

356K 

 

365K 

 
 

 

13:30

 

USD

 
 
 

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

20.2

 

17.4 

 

19.5 

 
 

 

13:30

 

USD

 
 
 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3343K

 

3405K 

 

3424K 

 
 

 

14:00

 

USD

 
 
 

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

101.0B

 

29.3B 

 

19.1B 

 
 

 

15:00

 

USD

 
 
 

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

12.5

 

11.4 

 

10.2 

 
 

Economic Events for March 16, 2012

Time      Currency        Event                                                          Forecast               Previous

13:30     CAD      Foreign Securities Purchases                     6.27B                     7.38B      

Foreign Securities Purchases measures the overall value of domestic stocks, bonds, and money-market assets purchased by foreign investors.     

 13:30    CAD      Manufacturing Sales (MoM)                         0.60%                   0.60%

Manufacturing Sales measures the change in the overall value of sales made at the manufacturing level.             

13:30     USD      Core CPI (MoM)                                            0.2%                      0.2%                     

13:30     USD      CPI (MoM)                                                     0.4%                      0.2%     

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

14:15     USD       Industrial Production (MoM)                       0.4%                      0.0%

Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

14:55     USD       Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index        75.7                       75.3

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rates the relative level of current and future economic conditions. There are two versions of this data released two weeks apart, preliminary and revised. The preliminary data tends to have a greater impact. The reading is compiled from a survey of around 500 consumers.

Government Bond Auction Schedule     (this week)

Mar 15 16:00 US Announces auction of 10Y TIPS on Mar 22

Crude Oil Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
101.697
102.738
104.107
105.148
106.517
107.558
108.927

Fibonacci
102.738
103.659
104.228
105.148
106.069
106.638
107.558

Camarilla
104.812
105.033
105.254
105.148
105.696
105.917
106.138

Woodie's
-
102.820
104.270
105.230
106.680
107.640
-

DeMark's
-
-
105.833
104.806
103.423
-
-