Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil rose 72 cents to $105.83 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices traded around 1.5% lower week to date. The increase in today's trading could be on the weakness of the US dollar which turn lower after a report on inflation was seen as giving policy makers more reason to maintain ultra-accommodative monetary measures. There was very little in the way of economic news from either side of the Atlantic.

Western allies continued to turn up the heat on Iran, with the SWIFT banking system agreeing not to process any funds transfer for Iran. SWIFT handles move of the electronic transmissions around the globe. Also it was noted that most insurance or reinsurance on oil shipments are processed through the EU or US, and can no longer cover ships moving Iranian oil, making it difficult to transport the Iranian crude. Even insurance agencies not in the embargo countries can cover the shipments as they cannot share the risk through the reinsurance markets.

U.S. economic data showed continued improvement, but with inflationary pressures starting to rise, [the Fed] may not be able to maintain its ultra-accommodative monetary policy for much longer. Today's U.S. CPI data could prove to be the main catalyst for trade if it rises above the key 3% level on a year-over-year basis.

U.S. consumer prices increased 0.4% in February, owing mainly to the surging cost of gas, the Labor Department said Friday. The government also reported that inflation-adjusted hourly wages, on average, fell 0.3% in February as higher prices outstripped a 0.1% gain in earnings.

The output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities was flat in February, the Federal Reserve said Friday. This was well below Wall Street expectations of a 0.4% gain. 

Consumer sentiment in March declines for the first time since August, as rising gasoline prices cause a downturn in expectations, according to a key gauge released on Friday.

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Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

Released Economic Reports for March 16, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

 

EUR

 
 
 

Italian Trade Balance 

-4.35B

 

1.62B 

 

1.15B 

 
 

 

 

EUR

 
 
 

Trade Balance 

5.9B

 

6.2B 

 

7.4B 

 
 

 

 

USD

 
 
 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 
 

 

 

USD

 
 
 

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.4% 

 

0.2% 

 
 

 

 

CAD

 
 
 

Foreign Securities Purchases 

-4.19B

 

6.27B 

 

7.38B 

 
 

 

 

CAD

 
 
 

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 

-0.90%

 

0.60% 

 

0.60% 

 
 

Economic Events for March 19, 2012

01:01     GBP      Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)    

The Rightmove House Price Index (HPI) measures the change in the asking price of homes for sale. This is the U.K.'s earliest report on house price inflation, but tends to have a mild impact because asking prices do not always reflect selling prices.                                                                                

01:01     GBP      Nationwide Consumer Confidence        

Nationwide Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.                                                                                     

13:30     CAD       Wholesale Sales (MoM)

Wholesale Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the wholesale level. It is a leading indicator of consumer spending.

 

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

 Mar 19  n/a   Greece  CDS Auction

Mar 19  10:10  Slovakia  Bond auction

Mar 19  10:10  Norway  T-bill auction

Mar 20  09:30  Spain  12 & 18M T-bill auction

Mar 21  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 21  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Mar 21  10:30  Portugal  Eur 0.75-1.0bn 4 & 6M T-bills

Mar 22  10:10  Sweden  I/L bond auction

Mar 22  10.30  UK  Auctions 0.625% 2042 I/L Gilt

Mar 22  15:00  US

Announces auctions of 2Y Notes on Mar 27, 5Y Notes on Mar

28 & 7Y Notes on Mar 29

Crude Oil Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
103.483
104.292
105.753
106.562
108.023
108.832
110.293

Fibonacci
104.292
105.159
105.695
106.562
107.429
107.965
108.832

Camarilla
106.591
106.799
107.007
106.562
107.423
107.631
107.839

Woodie's
-
104.455
106.080
106.725
108.350
108.995
-

DeMark's
-
-
108.428
106.764
106.158
-
-