Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

 

Crude

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis March 2, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil gained Thursday, starting March on a mildly positive note, cheering news that manufacturing in China expanded. Oil is trading at 108.30

China's manufacturing gained momentum; helped by strength in new orders, export demand and production, though inflation pressures remain a concern, according to a survey released on Thursday.

The state-affiliated China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said its purchasing managers index, or PMI, rose 0.5 points to 51.0 from January's 50.5 and December's figure of 50.3 in a third straight month of steady improvement.

A higher-than-expected increase in U.S. inventories also added some pressure to oil prices on Wednesday.

Continued geopolitical worries continues to support crude prices, although the noise from Iran has subsided a bit, the US continues to exert pressures, which will see Iran retaliate. The markets continue to keep a close eye, although Saudi Arabia and the OPEC nations have assured the US and EU that they will make up any short falls.

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March 1, 2012 Economic Releases actual v. forecast

CHF

 
 
 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.3% 

 
 

GBP

 
 
 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.3% 

 

-0.3% 

 
 

CHF

 
 
 

SVME PMI 

49.0

 

48.5 

 

47.3 

 
 

EUR

 
 
 

French Manufacturing PMI 

50.0

 

50.2 

 

50.2 

 
 

EUR

 
 
 

German Manufacturing PMI 

50.2

 

50.1 

 

50.1 

 
 

EUR

 
 
 

Manufacturing PMI 

49.0

 

49.0 

 

49.0 

 
 

PLN

 
 
 

Polish GDP (YoY) 

4.3%

 

4.2% 

 

4.2% 

 
 

GBP

 
 
 

Manufacturing PMI 

51.2

 

52.0 

 

52.0 

 
 

EUR

 
 
 

CPI (YoY) 

2.7%

 

2.6% 

 

2.6% 

 
 

EUR

 
 
 

Unemployment Rate 

10.7%

 

10.4% 

 

10.6% 

 
 

USD

 
 
 

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

 
 

CAD

 
 
 

Current Account 

-10.3B

 

-9.6B 

 

-12.3B 

 
 

USD

 
 
 

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.4% 

 

0.0% 

 
 

USD

 
 
 

Initial Jobless Claims 

351K

 

353K 

 

353K 

 
 

USD

 
 
 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3402K

 

3400K 

 

3404K 

 
 

USD

 
 
 

ISM Manufacturing Index 

52.4

 

54.6 

 

54.1 

 
 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 01  09:30  Spain  Bono auction

Mar 01  09:50  France  OAT auction

Mar 01  10.30  UK  Auctions 4.0% 2022 conventional Gilt

Crude Oil Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
102.473
104.537
106.453
108.517
110.433
112.497
114.413

Fibonacci
104.537
106.057
106.996
108.517
110.037
110.976
112.497

Camarilla
107.276
107.640
108.005
108.517
108.735
109.100
109.465

Woodie's
-
104.500
106.380
108.480
110.360
112.460
-

DeMark's
-
-
111.465
109.033
107.485
-
-